Virginia Election Results: A Deep Dive into Demographics

The Virginia gubernatorial election has been the subject of intense scrutiny, with both parties vying for control of the commonwealth's highest office. While unofficial results are in, The New York Times has analyzed precinct-level data to provide a deeper understanding of the demographics that influenced the outcome.

According to The Associated Press, Republican Glenn Youngkin defeated Democrat Terry McAuliffe by a narrow margin. However, our analysis suggests that the election was not as straightforward as the final tally would suggest. Using historic turnout data and reporting from results providers, we have estimated the number of votes remaining in each precinct.

One of the most striking aspects of the election was the stark difference between Trump strongholds and Biden strongholds. In areas where former President Donald J. Trump received more than 60 percent of the two-party vote in the 2020 presidential election, Youngkin performed well, while in areas where President Biden received more than 60 percent, McAuliffe fared better.

Our analysis also revealed that the classification of areas as urban, rural or suburban played a significant role in determining the outcome. According to research by Jed Kolko, cities and suburbs tended to favor McAuliffe, while rural areas leaned towards Youngkin.

Furthermore, we found that education levels also had an impact on the election results. Areas with more college graduates were more likely to support McAuliffe, while those with fewer college graduates favored Youngkin.

Income levels also played a significant role, with lower-income areas supporting Youngkin and higher-income areas backing McAuliffe. The median household income in these precincts fell within the bottom 25 percent or top 25 percent of each state.

In conclusion, our analysis of precinct-level data provides a nuanced view of the Virginia gubernatorial election results. While the final outcome may have been narrow, our estimates suggest that demographic factors such as education and income levels played a significant role in determining the outcome. As the political landscape continues to evolve, understanding these dynamics will be crucial for predicting future election outcomes.

Nytimes virginia election